Seniors Housing Sector Begins to Overcome COVID-19 Challenges, CBRE Survey Finds

12 Nov 2020

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88% of Investors Expect Rents to Hold Firm or Rise Modestly Over Next 12 Months

70% Believe Occupancy Will Increase Over Next Year

Pandemic-Related Operating Expenses Likely to be in Place for 6-18 Months


While seniors housing will continue to be impacted over the near term as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, investors believe the sector has turned the corner from 2020’s significant challenges, according to the CBRE U.S. Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey.

 

Investors responding to the survey indicate that tempered investment growth is likely in the short-term, with a full recovery to take longer. Longer term they are encouraged by an aging population—baby boomers are nearing traditional ages for seniors housing with approximately 9,000 turning 70-years-old every day—and a greater understanding of the threats posed by the pandemic.

 

Seniors housing investment sales activity rose by 19.2% in Q3 2020 compared to the previous quarter. “In the early stages of the pandemic, the availability of capital slowed to a near standstill, but in recent months, both debt and equity have started to flow into the seniors housing sector again, particularly for buyers and borrowers with pre-existing relationships and proven track records,” saidJames Graber, national practice leader of Seniors Housing & Healthcare for CBRE’s Valuation & Advisory Services.

 

The vast majority of investors (88%) expect seniors housing rents to hold firm or rise modestly over the next 12 months. More than two-thirds (70%) expect occupancy levels to increase over the next year, compared to 53% in H1 2020. These responses reflect the troubled COVID-19 period as well as guarded optimism going forward.

“Throughout the pandemic response period, operators have put in the long, hard work of understanding the threat and implementing precautions in an effort to provide a safe environment for the senior population. As a result, we are seeing a trough in census decline, with positive net absorption in a vast majority of communities at all care levels,” said Mr. Graber.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, seniors housing operators have reported increased costs mostly comprised of increased payroll, sanitation, and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). Since the onset of the pandemic, 72% of operators have reported elevated net monthly operating expenses of between flat ($0) and $250 per unit. Pandemic-related operating expenses have now begun to abate, with a majority (62%) believing that current underwriting practices will be in place for 6-18 months.

 

Assisted Living (33%) is again viewed as the biggest opportunity for investment in the seniors housing sector over the next 12 months, followed  by Independent Living (22%) and Active Adult (15%). Investor interest in Assisted Living and the re-emergence of Memory Care, which has tripled since the prior survey, show an increasing trend towards need-based care levels. Investor interest in Active Adult declined in this survey due to prospective renters being reluctant to move during the COVID-19 environment.

 

The outlook for seniors housing capitalization rates over the next 12 months has shifted, with the portion of respondents expecting an increase in cap rates rising to 36%, up from 13% in the prior survey—a result of the anticipated impact of COVID-19 on the sector. Over half (53%) of respondents expect no change in cap rates in the near term.

 

“While there can be a focus on changes in cap rates as a result of the ongoing pandemic, underwriting property fundamentals, such as elevated pandemic-related operating expenses and census projections, are having the most significant impact on net operating income expectations,” added Mr. Graber.

 

Notes to Editors:
The H2 2020 CBRE Seniors Housing & Care Investor Survey’s objective is to identify new trends in the seniors housing & care industry and to provide key insights on the state of the market. The data is based on market sentiment as collected from the most influential seniors housing investors, developers, lenders and brokers throughout the United States. This survey is the ninth consecutive report in a long legacy of consistent reporting methodology, providing pertinent and actionable market intelligence. The prior survey (H1 2020) closed at the end of February 2020 and, as such, survey respondents had only a limited perception of the potential adverse impact of the pandemic. The H1 2020 survey resulted in a pre-pandemic industry benchmark, and we have juxtaposed these prior results with this survey (H2 2020) to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the seniors housing market to date

About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2021 revenue). The company has more than 105,000 employees (excluding Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves a diverse range of clients with an integrated suite of services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services. Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.