Australian Residential Figures Q3 2024

Key Points:

• Value growth is slowing and showing greater diversity between and within markets. Performance in Sydney during the September quarter has decelerated further. Melbourne’s values, both house and units, have declined. Performance in Canberra is patchy. Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, by contrast, continue to experience robust growth, although also starting to slow.
• Nationally, the price spread between houses and units remains at a near record high.
• CBRE’s Q3 2024 Residential Valuer Insights survey identified a slight moderation in demand conditions, with 42% of valuers reporting ‘strong’ to ‘very strong’ demand in their local markets, down from 54% in Q2. Just over half of valuers reported a balanced market. Price growth expectations have also moderated a little.
• Mirroring the Q2 survey, first home buyers and local investors were the most active purchasers, followed by upgraders and downsizers.
• Rental markets remain in undersupply across the country. National vacancy was sitting at 1.2% in September, with all capital cities apart from Canberra sub-2.0% and Perth and Adelaide trending sub-1.0% for some time.
• While lower overseas migration and increased investor lending suggest tight conditions may ease a little, supply pipelines remain constrained with little prospect of any significant supply-side relief over the medium term.
• CBRE forecasts suggest the future supply of apartments is likely to hover around 50,000 per annum over 2025-2029, well short of the estimated 75,000 per annum necessary to avoid further falls in vacancy.