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CBRE’s H2 2023 Lenders Sentiment survey finds:
Lender investment preference continues to be dominated in the Industrial & Logistics sector, followed by Residential. Lenders have increased their caution towards Office.
Appetite for new loans over the next three months is flattish for the majority of lenders.
For new developments, there is a sizable bifurcation on pre-commitment and pre-sales by asset class:
Almost no pre-lease required for Industrial lending
>60% pre-lease required for Office assets by most respondents
Largest cohort of lenders require 80%-100% of debt funding covered by pre-sales for Residential
The cost of debt, influenced by the official cash rate and bank bill swap rates (BBSW) remains at elevated levels. Official forecasts and surveyed lenders expressed no clear consensus view as to whether rates have peaked, and their expected trajectory over the next 12 months.
Credit margin expectations normalised following H1 2023’s survey, with 95% of respondents in H2 2023 expecting <20bps movement in credit spreads over the next 3-months.
A slight increase in hedging requirements, presumably in response to recent interest rate volatility
Preferred LVR requirements remained stable around 40-60% but this may come under pressure as assets are revalued in the next 6 months
ICR requirement of 1.5x for new investment grade lending remains a preferred metric amongst lenders. There has been an uptick in respondents requiring a 1.35x ICR to support new deals. -
Article | Adaptive Spaces
Why this Australian city is seeing a growth in multi-storey developments
November 21, 2023
Exploring the trending growth in Sydney’s multi-storey warehousing with insights from CBRE’s industry experts and Charter Hall.
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Key points:
Over the past 12 months, office attendance in Australia has shown a steady improvement.
In Q3 2023, the national average occupancy reached 71% of pre-covid levels, well above the 54% recorded in Q3 2022.
Every major CBD market in Australia has experienced a positive trend over the past 12 months.
National office attendance remains highest mid-work week, with attendance between Tuesday and Thursday.
Many large corporations continue to set clearer return to office work policies.
Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook 2023
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After a tumultuous period of economic uncertainty, our region’s commercial real estate market is set to experience one of its most pivotal years.
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Australia's online retail sales continueto grow, however the rate of growth has fallen since the pandemic highs. Since 1Q23, the e-commerce penetration rate has remained relatively steady hovering between 12.6% and 12.8%.Despite the moderation in Australia’s e-commerce penetration rate, similar to other countries globally, e-commerce appears to have had a lasting effect on the trajectory of growth. Australia is 4-years aheadof its pre-COVID trend, as a higher share of Australian households are purchasing online compared to pre-pandemic. We also look into this for other key offshore markets that have either an emerging or developed e-commerce sector, to see if they are ahead of their pre-pandemic trend line.Our latest e-commerce report also explores the composition of what Australian consumers are purchasing online, factors driving growth, forecast e-commerce penetration rate, and the impacts on industrial and logistics property.Further to this, we have calculated the e-commerce penetration by state – an industry first.
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Key Points:
New South Wales GSP increased 1.8% in 2021-22, following a rise of 2.6% in the previous year.
Retail sales increased by 1.3% q-o-q in September, the highest quarterly growth recorded this year. -
Key Points:
WA’s retail sales growth continues to decelerate, as higher interest rates and cost of living continue to pressure consumer spending. WA retail sales grew 3% y-o-y in September, spurred by record population growth driven by international and interstate migration.
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