Melbourne Retail Figures Q1 2025

Key Points:

• Victorian retail turnover experienced steady growth in Q1 2025, recording a 1.9% uptick over the past three months.  
• Labour market conditions have slightly eased, with Victoria’s unemployment edging up to 4.6% y-o-y, a level that continues to be low by historical standards.
• Retail supply over 2025-2026 is projected to reach c.336,400 sqm across CBD, shopping centre and LFR assets. Supply is anticipated to align with the five-year historical average of c.146,000 sqm p.a.
• Net face rents across sub regional and neighbourhood shopping centre assets in Melbourne experienced modest growth in Q1 2025, while other retail assets remained stable during the quarter.
• In Q1 2025, retail investment sales in Melbourne surged, already surpassing the total sales value achieved throughout 2024. Northland Shopping Centre (50%) sold for $385m, marking the largest retail property transaction in Victoria since 2018. 
• Yields were broadly flat in most asset classes in Q1 2025, with sub regional centres compressing by 2.5bp q-o-q and prime CBD expanding by 8bp q-o-q.