Melbourne Retail Figures Q4 2025

Key Points: 

• Household spending in Victoria in November 2025 rose by 1.0% m-o-m and 4.9% y-o-y in seasonally adjusted terms, hinting at continued resilience in consumer demand despite broader economic uncertainty.
• In November 2025, Victoria’s unemployment rate rose to 4.7% (+0.6 pp y-o-y), however remains low by historical standards.
• Retail supply over 2026 and 2027 is projected to reach c.333,113 sqm across CBD, shopping centre and LFR assets. Supply is anticipated to align with the five-year historical average of c.119,272 sqm p.a.
• In Q4 2025, net face rents for super prime CBD increased 7.7%, reflecting strong demand for flagship locations as luxury and experiential retail continues to rebound. LFR rents rose by 6.4% while other retail assets remained broadly stable during the quarter.
• Retail investment activity in Melbourne ($5m+) recorded $619.2m in Q4 2025. The most notable transaction was the sale of Burwood One, a sub-regional centre.
• Sub-regional centres experienced the sharpest y-o-y yield compression, contracting by 25 bp.