Residential Figures Q1 2024

Prices in most major markets continued to show resilience over the final quarter of 2023 and into 2024, although the pace of growth is showing some divergence.

• Nationally, the median house price rose by 1.8% q-o-q to $1,005,200 while the national median unit price rose by 1.7% to $659,000. The median unit price has now reached its previous late-2021/early 2022 peak, with the median house price closing in.
• Interest rates have likely peaked, with prospects of one or two OCR cuts by the end of 2024. Any cuts flowing through to mortgage markets will boost confidence and spur further price gains, particularly with demand conditions remaining strong.
• Rental markets continue to sit in undersupply supporting substantial rental growth of more than 20% y-o-y in some markets, with national vacancy settled at around 1.0%. Net overseas migration over the year to September 2023 totalled 549,000, marking the highest annual population growth rate of 2.5%.
• Supply pipelines remain constrained by elevated construction costs, although appearing to be stabilising, labour bottlenecks and squeezed profit margins impacting project feasibilities. Despite best intentions, the target of 1.2 million new well-located homes over the next five years has little prospect of being achieved. This equates to 240,000 completions p.a., contrasting with the 174,000 completions over the year to September 2023 and declining approvals and commencements.