Australian Seniors Housing

The Australian Retirement Villages and Aged Care sector collectively account for approx. 430,000 places. We estimate the senior housing sector is nearly four times larger than student accommodation and 10 times larger than the current build-to-rent sectors. But the sector has low-levels of institutional ownership and we foresee significant opportunities for consolidation.  For example, the market share for top 5 operators in retirement villages is ~13% and aged care ~17%.   

Transaction activity in the sector is vibrant, with at least nine +$100m deals in Villages and six $100m deals in Aged Care since 2021. In a similar vein, retirement villages are trading at some of the largest discounts to homes in close proximity, providing fruitful opportunities for incoming investors.  

Australia’s +65 yrs old population is projected to grow from 4.75m currently to 7.0m by 2040.  Around 11% of this cohort resides in retirement villages and aged care facilities.  New supply of senior living stock has been growing at a modest 1% - 1.7% pa, lagging +2.4% pa increase in +65 yrs population.  Home care has also helped to alleviate the demand/ supply mis-match. 

Product quality and amenity expectations are likely to keep evolving as new retirees take advantage of larger accumulated asset balances.