Beyond Recovery

We modelled what stronger international tourism growth could mean for Australian hotel performance through to 2030. Our analysis indicates that restoring visitor intensity to its 2019 level could lift the national hotel occupancy level to 80% and RevPAR to $225, a 24% increase on current performance, with gateway markets most likely to benefit. 

Key findings include:

• International arrivals reached 9.16 million in the year ending May 2026, equivalent to 98% of 2019 levels.
• International visitors are more valuable than before the pandemic, with average spend up 31% to $6,795 and average hotel stays increasing from 6.7 to 8.6 nights.
• Visitor intensity, measured as international arrivals relative to population, remains below its 2019 peak at 0.32 visitors per resident, compared with 0.37 in 2019.
• Global recovery has varied significantly, with markets including Japan and Portugal now well above pre-pandemic levels.
• Had arrivals continued growing at their pre-pandemic CAGR of 3.8%, Australia would be tracking at approximately 12.1 million visitors today, highlighting the scale of the opportunity ahead.

The report also considers the role of major events, aviation connectivity, and constrained hotel supply in shaping the next phase of demand growth.