KH:
Hello and welcome to CBRE's Talking Property Podcast, where our team of experts, our clients, and industry specialists share insights into the way we live, work, and invest through the lens of commercial real estate. I'm Kathryn House, CBRE's Australian Communications Director, and I'm your host for this latest Talking Property episode. Today we'll be discussing social and affordable housing, which has made up of only about 1% of the homes that have been built in Australia over the past decade. With the country in the middle of a rental crisis, it's an area that needs urgent attention as a growing number of people experience rental stress and homelessness. We've seen some steps towards this, including the Federal Government’s Housing Australia Future Fund, which will enable 20,000 social dwellings to be built by 2029, as well as the establishment of the National Housing Accord between the Commonwealth states and territories, local government, institutional investors and the construction sector.
But there is still much to be done. Affordable and social housing is also a market sector that offers considerable potential for investors, providing stable, long-term revenues. But it's an area that's misunderstood by many property players despite the sector's growth potential. So, to discuss the current landscape and how investors and developers can get involved, I'm joined by Wendy Hayhurst, CEO of the Community Housing Industry Association (CHIA), Nicholas Proud, CEO of PowerHousing Australia, Gavin Salt, Residential Lead at i2C Architects and Steph Harper, Valuation & Advisory Services Director for CBRE's Living Sectors business. Thanks for joining me. So, Steph, going back to basics, can you talk us through what social and affordable housing is? Because I understand they're two quite different things?
SH:
Yes, I guess social and affordable can often get lumped in together to some degree, which is true. They do have similar elements to them. But when we're referring to social housing, we're talking about those that are very unlikely to be able to afford private rental market rents. They're usually on very low incomes and the households are usually likely to be receiving some form of government benefits. Affordable is a little bit broader than that. So, we're talking more very low to moderate income earners. But at CBRE, our Valuations team does have a little bit of a broader definition around what that is, a bit more of an umbrella definition. And that's really accommodation that doesn't represent market prices or below market rents. It's usually delivering accommodation to a particular cohort, and it's usually linked to some form of income. But that broad-based definition really captures some of the different models that we've been working on and allows for the delivery of diverse product. And we need diversity in our affordable housing sector.
KH:
Yes, absolutely. So, Wendy, you've worked in the social and affordable housing space for most of your career, including your current role at CHIA which is the peak body representing not-for-profit community housing organisations across Australia. Can you tell us about some of the benefits that social and affordable housing can deliver? I was reading some Swinburne University of Technology research that was commissioned, which estimates that new social and affordable housing being delivered under the Future Fund and the new Accord will create a $4.4 billion benefit over the next 40 years?
WH:
Yes. So, if we think about who's being housed, they're people who are formally homeless quite often, or they're in rental stress. So, if we provide them with stable secure accommodation, it usually makes it far, far easier for them to thrive. So, what I mean by that is that they'll be in a better position to get a job. So they're more likely to make an impact on the rest of the economy by paying higher taxes, if you like. So those are some of the benefits. If people are homeless, so often - in inverted commas - consuming health services more than they would do, they're also more likely to experience the criminal justice system as well. So, the work that we've done is to look at what the impact would be on other public sector budgets. So we've looked at peer reviewed research to make sure we're not exaggerating that, and we've also looked at what it means for individuals who've had more money left in their pocket to go out there and spend as well.
And we also build homes that are generally energy efficient. So people are often saving on bills, higher bills, perhaps in the private rental sector. So when you add all of that up, yes the community benefits are $4.4 billion over 40 years. But for individuals there's a much, much bigger benefit for them. And lower income people tend to spend the extra money that they have in their pocket. They don't have the scope to save. So, if we invest in this, we have to balance the cost of doing so with the benefits that come as well. If we don't treat it like infrastructure, it becomes too hard, I think, for governments.
KH:
Yes. And I think that's a really good way to look at it, treating it as infrastructure and it's probably not the way that it has been looked at in the past necessarily.
WH:
Absolutely.
KH:
So Nicholas, Power Housing Australia, you facilitate a national network of 37 growth and tier one regulated community housing providers who develop and manage affordable housing across Australia. What are the current challenges that you’re seeing in the delivery side of things? And I know I've heard you discuss planning as an ongoing issue. So I was interested to read the New South Wales government has flagged to plan to allow property developers to exceed existing height limits on apartment buildings by 30% in some circumstances if they set aside at least 15% of new projects for affordable housing. Can you sort of talk us through, I guess, the challenges including planning and what you think is going to make this delivery easier in the longer term?
NP:
Well, as a country, we've failed to plan for housing. So slightly different use of the word plan, but we have seen a situation where for the last decade what we've thought was going to happen hasn't happened. And when we thought something is going to happen, we exceed it by a lot. So we saw in the mid part of the last decade, we saw foreign investment take housing starts from about 170,000 homes to about 230,000 homes unexpectedly in 2017 in one year. So, 60,000 extra homes built in one year. You'd hope that would've taken the pressure off pricing, it would've made things easier. And by the time we got to Covid, then, four or five years of building at that level really took a bit of the edge off the pricing. But we hit Covid, thought we'd drop the build rate by half. What happened, we started building record supply.
Some of that was stimulus. We've seen in recent times, we've seen that the net overseas migration has come off a very low base during that Covid period, to the point where in the March quarter this year, the latest numbers we have, we've seen somewhere around 137,000 net overseas migration in the numbers. If you annualise that out, that's about 600,000 net overseas migration. If you go back to the budget last year in May, the original budget, or the last budget from the last government, we're looking at about 180,000 for the whole of the financial period ending June 30. So if one quarter is actually 137,000 and the previous estimate was 180,000 for the whole year, and it's likely it'd be more like 600 or about 530,000 it would be, net overseas migration, not 180,000 as May last year we were saying, or or the Federal Treasury was saying, we're not really planning for what's actually happening.
It keeps happening. What we do have is the Federal Government's committed to a national housing plan. We have now two pieces of legislation, or a legislative package, I should say, that has the Housing Australia Future Fund, it has a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council. We have finance and money that's being put aside by the government to build tens of thousands of homes. So, 20,000 social, 10,000 affordable, and then another 10,000 in that national Accord. So, 40,000 homes over a five-year period. It's a very good start. It'll see CHPs involved deeply in the equation like we have been for decades. We've been here doing this for a long time, we’re the original Build to Rent in this country. But it's good to see that developers and planners are thinking about how they can create affordable housing and if a bonus of, an extra 30% in that development assessment allows for 15% social and affordable and that wasn't there before, well that's obviously a good start, that there's actually thinking about social and affordable into the planning of those large developments. And so, bringing it to the front of the equation is really important, planning is now seeing across the country a focus where affordable housing is part of the planning schemes and that there is mandated requirements in planning schemes. We're starting to take it seriously, maybe a little bit too late, but at least at the Federal level downwards, we have a national plan, we have a structure that's rolling through every level of government, and CHPs and charitable housing organisations are ready to do this work.
KH:
Yes it's interesting you say the original BTR I'd never thought about it like that, but it's, it's really true. And to your point, obviously it would've been great if this could have been kickstarted a lot earlier, but great to see that there's so much, you know, focus on this. So, you know, many levels of government and in industry. It's probably a good segue, Steph, to talk about that investor perspective, you know, and that whole idea of the original BTR was social and affordable housing. We're seeing a lot of interest in that BTR sector at the moment. What needs to happen to get investors to look more at social and affordable. I know when we've chatted before, you've sort of talked about there needs to be a little bit more education potentially about the benefits, you know, the returns that could be expected. Perhaps you could talk us through the types of investors that are starting to look at this sector, the returns they can expect, and how can we attract more investor interest in this market?
SH:
Yeah, to say that there's sort of one size fits all for the investors is unrealistic. And the idea is that, with the variety of different models that are floating around for social and affordable housing, there's usually some form of different risk attached to that and different return profile as well. But models really are looking at different stakeholders. And that could be having multiple roles for stakeholders, different built form outcomes. So when you're talking about investing in, you know, an entire building or portfolio, a fund or versus dwellings and house and land packages, it might have a combination of those, restricted and unrestricted use. So whether it's required on planning, timeframes and investment terms, exit strategies, if there are any targeted cohorts, subsidies, if there's mechanisms for an uplift, an incentive model, all of those combined together really bring a delivery model and they have different risks attached to them. So, an investor can really play anywhere on that continuum. And that continuum is really from a pure infrastructure play all the way up to something that's probably more aligned with the market fundamentals or the private market. And there's a variety of different models along that continuum that investors can essentially play in. Appetite for those different models is really going to depend on the investor. So again, no one size fits all
KH:
And a bit more of a long-term investment play than some of the traditional sectors that investors might have been looking at.
SH:
Yes. So, if you sort of take Build to Rent, know that the investment term thesis can range from seven to 10 years and then when you're looking at more of an infrastructure play, it can be anywhere from 20 to 30 years. So a very different profile.
KH:
So, Wendy and Nicholas, I think, a lot of people would be interested in some of the partnership opportunities there. And I know Wendy, when we were chatting, you were talking about partnership being a really good option for people who are looking at the sector. What would you recommend is the best starting point for groups wanting to get involved in social and affordable housing?
WH:
Well, I mean I think the first thing is that it's going to very much depend on the type of the segment of the market that people are interested in. So, I think it was interesting that Steph was talking about really two main types. You've got that affordable housing space, which is perhaps targeted at key workers where it can be provided for a relatively short space of time because the people that we're housing in there perhaps just need accommodation that's sub-market rent for a short period of time. But then you've got that long-term investment that we require for people in the social housing and probably low-income households who might be working, but you know, they are probably not realistically going to be able to get a home in the private sector. So, we've seen a lot of partnerships in that first type already. Some of it, really, with very little government subsidy going in, basically often just the charitable concessions that a CHP could bring. Because that's what I'd like to get over to some of your listeners. Because we're charitable, we do have GST concessions on development, which can make a big difference, to making a project work. We're used to doing multi-tenure as well. So, we've been used to providing social and affordable housing along with Build to Sell. It's a very easy transition to also include market Build to Rent. So, I think looking at institutional investors who are prepared to work with us over the longer term, and we've seen opportunities with an investor Super Housing Partnerships, Assemble Communities and Housing Choices, one of our members, where they're providing long-term housing in blocks, which are a mixture of market, social and affordable - 60% market and 40% social and affordable housing. So that to me is a type of arrangement that we'd like to replicate elsewhere, it won't solve all of our problems. What I would say with partnerships is, and what Super Housing Partnerships have proved, is that if you agree to form a partnership, the long-term nature of it is going to make it work. So those organisations know each other, they trust each other, they'll go forward as well. So, I say, meet someone, get to know them and agree to do this for the long term. Because it'll reduce the transaction cost.
We know that investors, and I'm sure Steff you’ll say this as well, the first time they do any investment, it just takes ages to set something up, doesn't it? You know, the due diligence that it takes and everything. But you don't have to do that once you've got your partner.
KH:
So, Nicholas, what are you seeing on that partnership front?
NP:
Well, we were in London three weeks ago. We met with Australian Super, IFM Investors, Moody's. We did the same trip to Times Square last year in New York, meeting with Morgan Stanley, Pension Real Estate Association and the major retirement fund and pension fund investors. They look at our sector, and they've already been doing that in the States and the UK for a long time, but they're looking at Australia as being a new opportunity. It's a little bit smaller than what they're used to, but they know that it’s long term, safe, government-backed, guaranteed yield. CHPs and community housing and housing associations across the world are becoming more well known as being a safe place to invest in. And what's really quite critical is that the investment is going to ride through recessions. It's going to ride through the ups and downs of market cycles just because of those subsidies that have been mentioned already.
Those things come and stay with us for a long period of time. And the beauty about a lot of the work that's been done by the Federal Government, as a Future Fund, its there to ride through not just economic periods and cycles, but changes of political colours. And so, from our perspective, we see that as being a great opportunity for those investors abroad. But we're also saying to those locally, it's time to get, into the conversations, have the meetings and form those relationships that Wendy's just mentioned, the collaborations. The next three to five years will be the ones that will be there in five to 10 years, 20 years from now. And I think that's the exciting time we've got ahead of us.
KH:
It is a really exciting time to be in this market space. And Nicholas, you mentioned you'd been overseas recently. Gavin, I know your background, you've got a strong background in social and affordable housing and have worked overseas. Can you give us a feel for how the design of social and affordable housing is shifting and what does good affordable housing look like?
GS:
I think just to jump into what Wendy and Nicholas are both saying here, we're seeing partnerships spring up. And a lot of our Build to Rent clients that we've had on board previously are looking at providing community housing as a space that they can lean into knowing that community housing is the original Build to Rent. I think that is, that's one that they're definitely seeing is a piece there. And what does good affordable housing looks like, for us, good affordable housing is housing that really takes care of that deep energy piece. So, we're seeing a lot of lean into, some of Wendy's comments there around, you know energy use and energy poverty. So, energy poverty is a problem that a lot of social housing residents can have. So, we're seeing a lot of our clients that are really keen to make sure that they have a retrofitted or are designing their properties in an energy sensitive manner.
KH:
And I know a lot of the work that you've done has been in markets where affordable housing is a bit more mature as a sector. How does our market compare and is there anything that we should or could be doing better here, do you think?
GS:
I think, to lean into your original point at the start of this, we have 1% of all residential properties in the last decade have been social and affordable properties. We need to do more. I think there's been a chronic lack of investment and funding in this piece. And I think that's really what we need to be doing here in Australia. I think if we think about the typical, social and affordable housing typology here in Australia, it's probably something from around the 1960s, seventies, you probably envisage a tower block. You know, we need to move that existing asset on. We need to change the script on that. A lot of the work that I did in a previous life was, the regeneration of existing 1960s and seventies assets, getting involved with residents at the front end and working through the transition process with them.
Because these are people's homes. People live in these spaces. We're all very house proud. It's an Australian identity, isn't it, to be proud of where you live and proud of your house. And social and affordable residents are no different. So, they're very, very keen, and very proud of where they live, and they should be. So, you know, we need to build communities in spaces. I think if you look at everything that we talk about when we talk about Build to rent and we talk about social and affordable housing, it’s about building communities and building places where people feel comfortable, happy, and healthy. We really need to look at lessons learned from overseas. Scotland in particular, Scotland and Canada are leaning into, passive house as a way of making sure that they're building quality, highly energy efficient buildings. And that's government mandated, that's government backed.
This was the passive house piece. I'm talking biasedly here, I’m a passive house designer, is that passive houses are a process that has been tried and tested since the 1980s. It's not a fly by night piece. So there's thousands of projects around the world that have gone through that process. It's a design process, but it's also a post-construction process as well. These properties get tested post completion. So really what I see there is a nice, clean set of design guidelines, but then also a quality assurance piece post construction that you can come back and hit an international global standard that assures quality.
KH:
Mm. And which doesn't mean that in eight to 10 years’ time, you're having to think about how you actually repurpose these projects.
GS:
Absolutely right. And what that allows you to do is, is just design for longevity. When you've got investors, they want that longevity asset there. But also, you know, we are going through a climate crisis at the moment. We're all trying to figure out what that looks like and what the world will be in, you know, 10, 20, 30 years’ time. So, you know, if we can get that right now, then we should, I think we are going through a process of building an awful lot of social and affordable housing here. So, we need to get it right at this moment.
KH:
Hmm, absolutely. I love too what you said about, so changing the script on how people view social and affordable housing and, and also that whole idea of building communities. Going back to, you know, how we can actually get more affordable and social housing. Wendy, Nicholas, do we need more incentives? We've talked a little bit about this already, but is there more we could do on the incentive front to encourage additional development?
WH:
Well, one of the things that we're arguing for, which isn't always popular with our colleagues in the property industry, is thinking about Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning. So, Nick was saying that he was over in the UK, and I think he went to visit the Elephant & Castle, where one of our Australian developers Lendlease have redeveloped an estate. I used to work on, actually in the Elephant & Castle, so very close to the centre of London, two tube stations, lots of buses. And when they redeveloped that estate, they had to create a certain amount of social and affordable housing over a much larger footprint than the actual estate that was demolished. So around about 30%. And yeah, there were issues around that because it was one of the first projects that Lendlease had done where there was that, in inverted commas, inclusion rezoning, because we've got a slightly different way of describing it over in the UK. But it did mean that we could regenerate that area but know that we were going to get a decent amount of social and affordable housing, more units than were there before.
What we'd like to see in Australia is that Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning comes in on all residential developments with the protections for land that's already owned by developers, but new land that's built that we require a proportion of that accommodation that they build there is social and affordable housing. And what it is, is a line on their feasibility study so that when they're buying the land, they know the obligations there, so they pay less for land. Anyone who's looked at any charts, anyone who's in the development industry knows just how much land values have gone up in good accessible bits of our cities. So, the landowner, yeah, they'll take a bit of a hit, but they're still going to make a profit. Because we need so much social and affordable housing, I think it's absolutely essential because matched with government investment, that will really attract institutional capital as well and it certainly will help us get to that total. So that's something that we will definitely be arguing for over the next few years.
KH:
And Nicholas, any thoughts from you?
NP:
Yeah, well we know that this has been something that's been normalised across other parts of the world. Some of the developments we've seen, so Battersea is an iconic 1930s power station, coal fired power station. It's now a vibrant hub in London that seven years ago was a desolate industrial wasteland. It now has social and affordable housing as a component of the delivery. Barking River to the east along the Thames has also got a significant redevelopment, with train stations and tube going to it. And what you can see in those parts of the world is an approach that's a little bit more advanced and mature and the financing that sits behind those types of deals is significant. But what it does say is it can be done. And what needs to be seen here is this next stage of our Federal Government, state government, local government collaboratives.
And we haven't seen what we've got coming up in some time if ever. Post-war 1940s and fifties we saw that Federal Government, at the central perspective realised it needed to invest to solve a crisis, which was a lot of people coming here. And I think those net overseas migration numbers I said before aren't quite post-war migration and refugees. We certainly have, if not, warlike challenges in affordability, here today they're coming by every interest rate rise and by every household that's coming off fixed rate mortgages, from twos and three percents up to five, 6%. And we're seeing that pass through to renters where that's an investment loan at a higher interest rate. So, we're seeing that overseas solutions are needed fast, at least we have structures in place coming through with a legislative package that's been approved. But realistically there's a strong message that there is an opportunity to invest in redevelopment in knocking down old one, two-star energy homes that are contributing up to 20% of the carbon footprint in this country to put brand new seven-star, livable passive house design solutions that have cradle to grave living.
You can live in a home near your school, near your job, near the health services, near the retail, and you don't have to go another 30-40ks out on infrastructure that doesn't exist. So, we're getting more mature in our discussion. I think it couldn't have come soon enough.
KH:
One final question I had, and it goes back to what you said mentioned about financing to an extent, but there are some new funding opportunities that have come out of these new government agreements such as loans and grants. They're going to be made available through Housing Australia. What's the interest been like in those new initiatives and how important is this do you think for getting more housing up and running?
WH:
Well, Kathryn, without government investments really it's impossible to do social housing. You know, the gap between what people pay in rent and what it costs to build and then maintain it. It's just unachievable. So, if we just go back to the UK, I mean if we think about Scotland, there they've had, not just a program at the moment, they've had a program historically every year. They know the Scottish government is going to come up with some money to invest in social and affordable housing. It's just a pipeline of projects they've got. What we've got is the beginnings of that. But we need that, because there's so much interest in it, it's going to be far over, it's going to be oversubscribed 10 times easily. What we need to do is to say, yep, that's a great start, but let's not stop when that 40,000 that Nick mentioned has built.
Let's just carry on year after year after year and we'll start to catch up again. We reckon with the modeling we've done, we really need at least 10% of all housing in Australia. So it's 4% now, at least 10% to be social and affordable housing. We're not asking for the earth, you know, the UK, Scotland is over 20% and even in England it's still 17 to 18%. We know that's probably a bit too ambitious for Australia, but 10% is where we want to go. And then those investors know that they can invest today and they'll be able to invest next year and the year after and the year after. And it becomes an asset class that we really need it to be. So please, all of us need to get that national housing and homelessness plan right.
NP:
And Gavin will be able to, provide some further numbers to this, but we have gone from, as I said before, about 230,000 commencements per year and even, straight after Covid we bounced back up to similar sort of levels to very high activity levels with building approvals down to 170 below 170,000’s, which means we'll only build 155 to 160. We need to be building about 230 to 240,000 homes a year just for population needs. By virtue of that equation, I think it was economics 101 a long time ago, not in post-grad or any of the other economics that can be done. You do it at the very first, first classes as if your supplier's not keeping up with demand. The price is going to be going in directions that aren't helpful. And so, a component of demand, as Wendy's saying if it was 10 or 20% of demand being captured, which is what's required, there's at least 30% of all housing starts should be at least affordable.
NP:
They're not. The market has this huge component of purchase behavior that could be taking place in the near future. This affordable housing asset class can cater for 10 to 30,000 homes being built a year that support the low cost and those that are on affordable incomes. That 10 to 30,000 homes is going to support builders and tradespeople that are finding it very, very difficult in the near future because the activity has dropped so much. So really, just re-entering as a component of demand, it's going to be vital to those businesses to see there being a stable flow-through of that pipeline of social and affordable housing. Because it is jobs, it's 43 trades and sub trades in every new house that's built and that's critical for the economy. And keeping that stability of construction workforce is going to be vital to keeping costs relatively much, in line in the equilibrium. So, it's a component of stability, of economic importance that will also be an outcome from the investments being made.
KH:
So perhaps to wrap us up in a bit of a call to action if you like, maybe I could ask each of you, what do you think is one thing that could really push this forward going ahead. Perhaps Wendy, I could start with you.
WH:
Well, I'd like to go back to the partnerships and really encourage investors or property developers out there to think about partnering with the CHP, making friends with the CHP, do an expression of interest because what we need is long-term partnerships where people get to know each other, set some criteria and let the sector respond to that. And you'll find, I think, that if you have those long-term partnerships cut the transaction costs, we've got the demand out there, we can source you plenty of renters as well. So that would be my number one.
KH:
Gavin?
GS:
Yeah, like I'll just agree there with Wendy on partnership. But also just looking, I think a lot of your CBRE listeners will be asset holders. And maybe just thinking about diversification of assets. You know, retail clients that potentially have the ability to develop some residential. You know, reach out to Wendy or Nicholas, and potentially some of their CHL partners there. Start that conversation as Wendy says. And I think there's definitely opportunities there on existing retail assets. You know, you've got existing land there, so, potentially diversification and densification there.
KH:
Nicholas?
NP:
Thank you. Yes we have, so Stockland's the nation's largest developer. They're members of PowerHousing. CBRE have come on recently as partners, which we're proud to say. Working with organisations that really are the room where the conversation takes place. There's a lot of noise that'll happen in the next period. Get into that quiet conversation. We have about 500 in our conference in Canberra in three weeks’ time. We can't fit anymore in the Great Hall of Parliament, but get in those rooms and have those, in those loud rooms, get into the quiet conversation, sidebar engagements and, and all of the, the relationships are being formed, have been formed and are forming now. So get involved, get close, have the discussions with CHIA, talk to PowerHousing, talk to Housing Australia in particular. They're brand new, they're fresh. They've been running for a bit over five years as National Housing and Finance Investment Corp. But talk to them, and most fundamentally, as Wendy would say, have a chat to those CHPs themselves and find out a little bit more about them. They're getting pretty busy, so, you might want to book a time in the diary, but look, there's always time for the growth that's about to happen and we've been preparing for this for some time. So we look forward to having that conversation.
KH:
And lucky last, Steph.
SH:
I'm probably stealing everyone's recommendation ideas here, but education is really important around this sector and the reality is when we talked about Build to Rent five or six years ago everyone said it didn’t work here, it wasn’t going to work, and here we are with an evolving market per se. But I suspect that in five to 10 years’ time we’ll be looking back on this affordable housing sector and saying the same thing, which I think is really exciting. But education is really key because it is a complex sector and it’s not something you can go and just get advisory on. It is about talking to various individuals and groups and talking to PowerHousing and CHIA and i2C around the design elements of that. Bringing in different stakeholders together is also the other one around collaboration. We’re talking about bringing CHP’s together, developers, investors, government and everybody needs to see each other’s point of view and everyone needs to give a little bit and if we can get somewhere that works and get a partnership that works, we will have an affordable housing sector that evolves quite quickly, hopefully.
KH:
Absolutely. It's great to see that it is heading in the right direction. And thank you so much for your time, Wendy, Nicholas Gavin and Steph. There's clearly an urgent need for more social and affordable housing and some positive steps are being made as we've discussed today. But there still is much to be done with AHURI research estimating that over 1.1 million social dwellings will be needed by 2037 up from just 350,000 in 2021. There's also some significant potential for developers and investors in what could be one of the country's biggest property growth sectors. Thanks for tuning into this latest episode of Talking Property with CBRE. If you like the show and want to check out more, follow
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