Australia Residential Valuer Insights Q3 2026

What are the key findings for Australia's residential market in Q3 2026? 

The following findings summarise the Q3 2026 survey results across demand, pricing, supply and buyer activity.

1. A majority of Valuers report soft or very limited demand

   In Q3 2026, 56% of CBRE Valuers described demand in their local markets as soft or very limited, comprising 48% who reported soft demand and 8% who reported very limited demand.  

2. First home buyers remain the most active buyer group

   First home buyers were identified as active by 78% of CBRE Valuers, their highest share across the 11 quarterly surveys undertaken and the fourth consecutive survey in which their share was 70% or higher. 

3. Local and interstate investors record their lowest activity levels since 2024

   Local investors at 26% and interstate investors at 18% recorded their lowest active buyer levels since the survey began in 2024. 

4. Demand varies across residential property types

   Around one-third of CBRE Valuers reported increased demand for vacant land, recently renovated properties and houses, including new and established houses. 

5. House price expectations have softened

   Almost two-thirds of CBRE Valuers expect house prices to fall over the next 12 months, compared with 84% who expected prices to rise in Q3 2025.  

6. Apartment price expectations have softened 

   Around two-thirds of CBRE Valuers expect apartment prices to fall over the next 12 months, compared with 56% who expected price rises in Q3 2025.  

7. More valuers expect vacant land values to fall

   In Q3 2026, 41% of CBRE Valuers expect vacant land values to fall over the next 12 months, up from 25% in Q2 2026 and 6% in Q3 2025. 

8. Valuers expect demand to remain stable or decline as listings increase

   Over the next 12 months, 41% of CBRE Valuers expect demand in their local markets to decrease and 43% expect it to remain stable. Meanwhile, 62% expect residential property listings to increase. 

What is the state of Australia's residential market in Q3 2026?

In Q3 2026, 56% of surveyed CBRE Valuers described demand in their local markets as soft or very limited. A further 36% described demand as moderate or balanced. Perth and Adelaide stood out, with one-third of Valuers in each market reporting strong demand. 

The report notes that high interest rates, changes to Negative Gearing and CGT, broader cost-of-living pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on sentiment. 

What are the expected impacts of the CGT and Negative Gearing changes on Australia’s residential market?

Changes to CGT and Negative Gearing were identified by 41% of surveyed CBRE Valuers as the biggest expected influence on residential market performance over the 12 months to Q3 2027, ahead of interest rates at 31% and general affordability at 14%. 

For prices, 83% of CBRE Valuers expect the CGT changes to put downward pressure on prices over the 12 months to Q3 2027, up from 50% in Q2 2026, while 80% expect declines under Negative Gearing, up from 48%. Over the longer term, 63% of CBRE Valuers expect the CGT changes to reduce prices, while 62% expect price declines under the Negative Gearing changes. 

Support for the view that either measure will encourage new development has fallen: for CGT, from 30% to 26% in the short term and 42% to 32% in the long term; for Negative Gearing, from 36% to 33% and 48% to 37%. 

For CGT changes, 66% of CBRE Valuers expect rents to increase over the next 12 months, while 71% expect rents to increase over the longer term. For Negative Gearing changes, 70% expect rents to increase over the next 12 months, while 72% expect rents to increase over the longer term.  

Which surveyed Australian markets recorded the strongest residential demand in Q3 2026?

Perth and Adelaide recorded the strongest residential demand readings among the markets surveyed in Q3 2026, with a third of Valuers in each market reporting strong conditions. Valuers in Melbourne and Sydney recorded the most negative house-price expectations among the markets surveyed. 

Adelaide recorded the strongest house-price and future-demand outlooks among the markets surveyed. Over the 12 months to Q3 2027, 44% of Adelaide Valuers expect house prices to rise, 33% expect stability and 50% expect vacant land values to increase. 

The ACT, Melbourne Metro and Sydney Metro recorded the weakest vacant land value expectations among the markets surveyed. 

What drives each market differs. In Melbourne Metro, interest rates (45%) are still the main influence, and in Sydney Metro interest rates and taxation changes are rated equally at 43% each. In all other major markets, taxation changes were identified as the biggest influence.  

What property types are gaining or losing demand in Q3 2026?

Vacant land, recently renovated properties and houses, both new and established, recorded solid levels of increased demand in Q3 2026, with each nominated by around a third of CBRE Valuers. However, increased demand for houses was less evident than in Q2 2026 and Q3 2025. 

Existing houses and unrenovated properties recorded the highest levels of decreased demand, each identified by 41% of CBRE Valuers, followed by existing apartments at 31% and villas and townhouses at 19%. 

Who are the most active residential property buyers in Australia in Q3 2026? 

First home buyers are the most active buyer group in Australia in Q3 2026, identified as active by 78% of CBRE Valuers, their highest share across the 11 quarterly surveys undertaken since 2024 and the fourth consecutive survey at 70% or higher. Upgraders follow at 52%, down-sizers at 46%, local investors at 26% and interstate investors at 18%. 

First home buyer activity is highest in Melbourne Metro, the ACT and Sydney Outer Metro, and lowest in Brisbane Metro and Brisbane Outer Metro. Local investors are most active in Sydney Outer Metro and interstate investors in Melbourne Outer Metro. 

What are Australian residential price expectations for the next 12 months to Q3 2027?

CBRE Valuers’ price expectations softened across all property types between the Q2 and Q3 2026 surveys. For the first time since the survey began in 2024, a majority expect both house and apartment prices to fall. 

For houses, almost two-thirds of CBRE Valuers expect prices to fall, with 36% expecting a fall of up to 5% and 26% a fall of between 5% and 10%. 

For apartments, around two-thirds expect prices to fall, including 29% expecting a fall of up to 5% and 31% a fall of between 5% and 10%.  

For vacant land, 41% expect values to fall, 40% expect stability and 18% expect growth.  

What is the outlook for Australia's residential market in the 12 months to Q3 2027? 

Demand expectations remain soft in the outlook to Q3 2027, with 41% of CBRE Valuers expecting a decrease and 43% anticipating stability.  

Listings are expected to rise over the same period. 55% of CBRE Valuers expect a slight increase and 7% a significant increase, both higher than Q2 2026 and Q3 2025, while 27% expect no change and 11% expect a decline. 

Forward-looking findings represent the expectations of surveyed CBRE Valuers as at August 2026. They are opinions and projections based on current market conditions and are subject to uncertainty.