Australian Senior Living 2026: Aged Care, Retirement Villages and Land Lease Communities

Australia’s senior living sector comprises approximately 480,000 units, with an estimated asset value of more than $150 billion. Despite its scale, institutional ownership remains low, presenting opportunities for consolidation. New supply continues to lag growth in Australia’s population aged 65 and over, while transactions have averaged nearly $3 billion a year since 2021.

About the Report  

Published in September 2026, this report analyses Australia’s residential aged care, retirement village and land lease community sectors. It covers market size, ownership, demand, supply, occupancy, relative pricing, financial models, valuation methodologies and transaction activity.

Key Findings 

1. Australia’s senior living sector comprises approximately 480,000 units, including 220,000 aged care beds, 210,000 retirement village independent living units and 51,000 land lease community sites. CBRE estimates the sector’s asset value exceeds $150 billion. 

2. The five largest operators hold approximately 17% of retirement villages, 20% of aged care and 55% of developed land lease community stock. 

3. New senior living supply is growing at 1% to 1.7% a year against a 2.4% annual increase in the population aged 65 and over. 

4. Australia currently has 4.75 million people aged 65 and over, projected to reach nearly 7.0 million by 2040. CBRE estimates that 11% to 12% live in senior living. 

5. Retirement living units typically trade at a 30% to 50% discount to nearby houses, with larger discounts in expensive metropolitan markets such as Sydney and smaller discounts in regional markets. 

6. Aged care demand is forecast to grow by around 4% a year, equivalent to 10,000 to 13,000 places annually, while supply has grown by just 0.7% a year since 2020. 

7. Senior living transactions have averaged nearly $3 billion a year since 2021 and account for an estimated 5% to 10% of all Australian commercial real estate transactions. 

8. 83% of Australians aged 75 and over own their home outright, and a typical couple aged 65 and over holds about $750,000 in superannuation. 

Who owns Australia’s senior living market, and what is driving investment? 

Australia’s senior living market has low levels of institutional ownership and significant potential for consolidation. The five largest operators account for approximately 17% of retirement villages, 20% of aged care and 55% of developed land lease community stock. Increased regulatory certainty has strengthened investor confidence across the sector, while growing participation from private equity and institutional funds has increased liquidity in aged care and retirement villages. Investor appetite is particularly strong for assets offering development upside.

What is the difference between aged care, retirement villages and land lease communities?

Australia’s three senior living models differ in resident age, contract type, entry payments, ongoing and exit fees, and the treatment of capital gains. 

Land lease communities comprise approximately 51,000 sites, excluding caravan parks. Residents purchase a home, enter into a site agreement and pay site rent. Exit fees typically do not apply, although they are more evident in Victoria and Western Australia, and residents retain 100% of the capital gain. 

Retirement villages provide approximately 210,000 independent living units. Residents typically enter through a licence or lease and pay a deferred management fee on exit. A proportion of the capital gain may also be shared with the operator. 

Residential aged care provides approximately 220,000 beds. Residents enter through a resident, accommodation and service agreement and may pay a refundable accommodation deposit, plus daily, means-tested and accommodation fees. Exit fees do not apply, and residents do not participate in capital gains. 

What is driving demand for senior living and shaping resident expectations? 

Australia’s ageing population is driving demand for senior living, but new supply continues to lag population growth. Home care has helped ease the demand and supply imbalance. 

Many older Australians also have substantial housing and superannuation wealth. Lower maintenance and unlocking capital are key reasons for downsizing, while two- and three-bedroom homes account for 76% of surveyed downsized residences. The report expects senior living quality and amenity expectations to evolve as new retirees benefit from larger accumulated asset balances.

What is happening in Australian retirement villages, and how are they priced and valued?

Retirement village occupancy now exceeds pre-COVID levels and is expected to remain around 95% for the rest of the decade. CBRE expects new retirement village supply to average 3,500 to 4,000 units a year, matching incremental demand of approximately 4,000 units annually. 

Independent living units typically trade at a 30% to 50% discount to nearby houses, with larger discounts in expensive metropolitan markets such as Sydney. 

A licence or lease is the most common contract. Management fees may be paid upfront or deducted from the final sale price, and the operator may receive a share of the capital gain. Retirement villages may be valued using a discounted cash-flow analysis of the owner or manager’s interest. 

What is happening in Australian aged care, and will supply catch up with demand?

Australia has approximately 2,500 aged care facilities and 225,000 places. National occupancy has increased to 90%. Around 90% of residents are aged 75 and over, with two-thirds aged between 80 and 95. 

Demand is forecast to grow by around 4% a year, equivalent to 10,000 to 13,000 places annually. Supply has grown by just 0.7% a year since 2020, and the report indicates that the supply rate is unlikely to improve over the medium term due to current capital expenditure and rising construction costs. 

Government funding accounts for 68% of residential aged care revenue. Refundable accommodation deposits total $65.7 billion and are the sector’s largest source of investment capital.  

How large is Australia’s land lease community sector, and how is it positioned? 

Australia has slightly more than 51,000 operating land lease community sites, excluding caravan parks, with a further 30,000 to 35,000 in development. Queensland accounts for 47% of supply, nearly matching New South Wales and Victoria combined. The five largest operators account for two-thirds of operating sites and sites in development. 

Around two-thirds of land lease communities see homes trade at a 10% to 70% discount to nearby houses, while just under a quarter see homes trade at a premium. Discounts are typically greater in land lease communities with older homes and more basic facilities, whereas modern homes in premium locations with state-of-the-art community facilities often command a premium. 

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Sources 

Analysis draws on CBRE Research, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, the Financial Report on the Aged Care Sector 2024–25, the PwC/Property Council of Australia Retirement Living Census, StewartBrown, AHURI, the Temple & Webster Rightsizing Study, the BDO/CIAA Resident Survey 2022, Cotality, the NSW Government retirement village calculator, the World Bank, KPMG and company reports. Land lease community site counts exclude caravan parks. Monetary values on this page are presented in Australian dollars.